Africa stands at a crossroads: the continent has just exited a recession following the Covid-19 pandemic, but the recovery is fragile. Beyond the health dimensions of the Covid-19 crisis, the pandemic caused an estimated 6.1% fall in per capita incomes in 2020 – setting living standards back by a decade in a quarter of sub-Saharan Africa.

The response by African governments and societies to multiple crises – Covid-19, the Ukraine-Russia war, climate change and biodiversity loss – will be pivotal in determining the continent’s medium-term growth and development trajectory. On the heels of the pandemic, the Ukraine-Russia war has brought turmoil to the global market, and increased inflationary pressures with rising global prices for food staples and agricultural inputs. Economic recovery may prove slow due to limited fiscal space for countercyclical support, a temporary contraction in capital inflows, and sovereign debt risks. Meanwhile, the sixth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that Africa remains one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change – with a risk that weather shocks and biodiversity losses may reverse development gains.