Environment-related and impact investments have grown substantially in recent years, with more than $1 trillion in impact investing assets under management globally. About $578 billion in green bonds were issued by 2021, with double-digit increases each year.
But very few of those climate-related investments are making it to the world’s lowest-income countries. It’s partly due to a lack of willingness from major donors to cough up funding they’ve promised, and partly due to lower risk appetite as interest rates and debt burdens mount.
This week we look at how carbon credits or other investments might offer an opportunity to unlock climate finance on the African continent.
One carbon credit is equal to 1 metric ton of greenhouse gas that is reduced, sequestered, or avoided. Global carbon markets, where those credits are exchanged, are valued at over $2 billion. But Africa accounts for just 2% of trading. The existing market is fragmented and complex, and high-quality carbon credits are scarce because accounting and verification methodologies vary quite a bit, writes Devex contributor David Njagi. But the global markets could be worth more than $50 billion by 2030 — which certainly seems worth tapping.
Enter the Africa Carbon Market Initiative, which was launched during last year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference. It aims to rapidly increase the production of African carbon credits while ensuring that revenues are transparent, equitable, and create jobs. Ensuring that local communities actually see the payout is key.
Another way to attract climate finance is for Africans to take advantage of the growing demands for the critical minerals required for the global energy transition, Samaila Zubairu, president and CEO of the Africa Finance Corporation, recently told me. Rather than shipping raw materials — which itself increases emissions — countries want to do more processing at the source but local projects will need outside funding to do so, he said. He hopes the push for lower emissions and more electric vehicles, along with the current geopolitical situation, can lead to more investment on the continent, and in turn more jobs and development.
While financial institutions have increasingly focused on impact and environmental and social investing, hopes that the trends would drive more money to low- and middle-income countries haven’t really translated to reality so far. Mainstream investors are still focused on financial returns and see too much risk in investing in these markets, Bill Sonneborn, global director of disruptive technology and funds at the International Finance Corporation, told me recently. But he’s not entirely pessimistic: Eventually, these investors will have to invest in these markets, he added.
Call to action
“It’s urgent that we get progress and that progress consists of concrete resolutions of debt that greatly helps countries reach sustainability.”— David Malpass, president, World Bank
A new pot of gold?
You heard it here first: The World Bank will set up a new “crisis facility” for the world’s lowest-income nations and Ukraine as it works to prevent more backsliding on key development priorities including health and education. The bank’s member countries support the new funding mechanism, Axel van Trotsenburg, the World Bank’s senior managing director, tells my colleague Shabtai Gold.
Now it’s up to the board to approve the move, so donors can start ponying up. Approval could come as soon as next month. Van Trotsenburg conceded that donor countries face stress at home over budgets and that asking for more money is delicate. “What I’m doing is stressing them even further,” he says but noted that these are “crisis times” for the world’s poorest people.
This facility would sit within the International Development Association, the bank’s fund for the lowest-income nations that offers highly concessional loans and grants. The IDA funds, which typically are replenished in three-year cycles, will also drop off in coming years because of the World Bank front-loaded spending. And whether donors will put in more cash to support IDA is a key debate around the ongoing reform efforts.
Money, money, money
$204 billion —
That is the total aid spending of OECD’s Development Assistance Committee member countries in 2022. It’s up 13.6% from the previous year.
A lot of the increase in spending went to supporting refugees and Ukraine, including European donors supporting refugees within their own borders. Aid to the group of least developed countries and to sub-Saharan Africa fell slightly, according to Devex Senior Development Analyst Miguel Antonio Tamonan.
A new day
The New Development Bank issued a $1.25 billion green bond last week, the first dollar bond issuance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The development bank of the BRICS emerging market nations, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has faced challenges raising money on the capital markets, as Moscow is a major shareholder.
None of the money in the latest bond will go to Russia, and the bank has had to pay a risk premium on the funding. But the bank’s Chief Financial Officer Leslie Maasdorp tells Shabtai that “This is a major step forward because now we’re starting a new journey.”
These efforts have led to large-scale and long-term change, providing access to financial services to over 10.2 million people and addressing issues related to financial exclusion.
FSD Africa, a UK aid-funded specialist development agency, today celebrated a decade of strengthening financial markets across Africa, growing economies, increasing incomes for vulnerable populations, and combatting poverty.
FSD Africa has made significant strides over the past decade by advancing policy and regulatory reforms, enhancing financial infrastructure, and increasing capacity, all while tackling systemic issues in Africa’s financial markets.
These efforts have led to large-scale and long-term change, providing access to financial services to over 10.2 million people and addressing issues related to financial exclusion. During the Covid-19 pandemic, FSD Africa observed a remarkable 87% increase in the demand for and use of remittance services, which played a crucial role in protecting families from the pandemic’s financial impacts.
FSD Africa’s market-building initiatives have resulted directly or indirectly in £1.9 billion of long-term capital made available for SMEs, affordable housing, and sustainable energy projects, among others. Its support for financial sector innovation has increased access to financial services for close to 12 million Africans, while its support for business growth has improved access to finance for more than 3 million African businesses and led directly or indirectly to the creation of over 35,000 new jobs.
Speaking during the event, Mark Napier, CEO at FSD Africa said: “Celebrating over ten years of our trailblazing work across Africa is special: in a short space of time, we have strengthened and developed financial markets and tapped into capital by using new instruments such as green and gender bonds. The future is key, and I look forward to continuing our hard work with our collaborative and innovative team. I have no doubt that we will continue to support and address Africa’s expanding needs as we move towards sustainable economic development.’’
Future-focused, FSD Africa’s strategy has evolved to address Africa’s expanding needs, with a greater emphasis on identifying innovative methods to mobilize resources for sustainable economic development. The organization has recently boosted its investment into projects that enable an equitable transition to a green future for Africa after several successful initiatives, including developing regulations and assisting green bond issuance programs in Kenya and Nigeria. The organization’s green portfolio and pipeline have expanded because of continuous investments in programs that provide environmental and social consequences, with close to £50 million being invested in green initiatives.
Jane Marriott, OBE, British High Commissioner to Kenya said: ‘”The UK is continually working with Kenya to promote green finance and economic growth as part of the UK-Kenya Strategic Partnership. FSD Africa is delivering on these priorities in Kenya and across the continent, creating over 35,000 jobs and leveraging more than KES 300 billion into sectors like renewable energy. I look forward to FSD Africa’s continued work in the years ahead.”
Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u, Cabinet Secretary, Kenya National Treasury said: ‘’Kenya’s partnership with FSD Africa has created a favorable environment for the growth of our local capital markets, resulting in increased interest from both domestic and foreign investors. FSD Africa also played a crucial role in establishing the Nairobi International Financial Centre (NIFC), positioning Kenya to receive more financial flows. We look forward to collaborating more closely with FSD Africa on green finance initiatives to promote sustainable development while addressing climate change challenges.’’
The African continent faces a unique path forward when it comes to industrialization and economic growth as calls for reaching climate goals worldwide continue to grow
Africa needs about $300 billion in climate financing annually
Private funding for green projects in Africa is very low
FSD Africa is in talks with potential green-bond issuers across the continent to raise at least $400 million for climate-linked projects this year.
The agency backed by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office will be a transaction adviser on the deals it expects to come from countries, including Tanzania, Zambia, Nigeria and Morocco. The amount to be raised will be about 70% higher than what FSD Africa said it helped to mobilize in climate- and gender-related financing in 2022.
From sunshine to rare minerals to a youthful population, Africa has the raw ingredients to make the green transition. Now it needs the finance.
Take power. Exceptionally strong sun and vast swathes of desert mean Africa is the region with the highest solar generation potential over the long term, according to calculations by the World Bank. It’s now cheaper to build and operate new large-scale wind and solar farms in many parts of the world than to keep running coal or gas-fired power plants. With more than half of people in Sub-Saharan Africa living without electricity, expanding solar should be a no-brainer.
Yet investment in renewable energy in Africa fell to an 11-year low in 2021, comprising just 0.6% of the global total, according to a report by BloombergNEF. Financing options are insufficient and expensive because lenders worry about the risks of taking on new projects in often politically or economically unstable countries with broken supply chains — though the opportunities can be unrivaled.
“African cities and economies are growing faster than anywhere in the world, so it’s ripe for transformation. The question is why we are not seeing the uptick in investment we should expect,” said Wanjira Mathai, regional director for Africa at the World Resources Institute. “The biggest challenge right now is the cost of capital. To unlock that would be absolutely catalytic.”
Renewable Investment in Africa
Source: BloombergNEF
Note: Global renewable energy asset investment by region
The world’s least developed continent, Africa produces just 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions but is already suffering some of the worst consequences of a changing climate. Rich nations have never met a 2009 pledge to funnel $100 billion a year to help developing countries shift toward cleaner energy sources and bolster their infrastructure against extreme weather.
At the UN-sponsored COP27 climate talks in Egypt last year, delegates agreed to create a new fund for countries battered by climate disasters, though the details have yet to be hammered out. And private sector lenders are calling for multilateral development banks to play a bigger role in financing clean energy projects in poorer nations.
It’s an issue that looms large over this year’s climate conference, which is taking place in Dubai.
Africa needs investments worth $2.3 trillion to meet the needs of its population, plus an additional $1 trillion to bolster its infrastructure against climate disasters, according to estimates from the Africa Finance Corp.
Financing for climate-related projects around the world reached an estimated $632 billion in 2019 and 2020, according to the Global Climate Initiative. Only $19 billion of that came to Africa, including just $2 billion from the private sector.
Even the continent’s buzzing startup scene lags behind the rest of the world. Africa was on the receiving end of just over 1% of the $415 billion in venture capital that went into the startup sector globally in 2022, according to research firm Briter Bridges. Of that, 15%, or around $800 million went into “clean tech” or “climate tech.”
A worker fills a truck that delivers water to remote communities from a pump in Garissa, Kenya, on Friday, May 20, 2022.
Photographer: Simon Marks/Bloomberg
Faced with limited resources and immediate challenges, governments are making stark — and divergent — choices.
“Two days ago, we went to distribute food relief to 4.3 million affected Kenyans in an emergency program that has forced us to re-allocate funds budgeted for education and health,” Kenya’s newly-elected president, William Ruto, told COP27 leaders in November. “The tradeoffs we are forced to make between indispensable public goods is evidence that climate change is directly threatening our people’s life, health and future.”
Ruto called for Africa to leapfrog fossil fuels and embrace clean power as the foundation of its future development. Lacking the oil, gas and coal deposits abundant in some parts of the continent, Kenya has embraced renewables instead. Over 90% of its power comes from sources including solar, wind and geothermal. It also beat the European Union by four years in banning single-use plastic bags and is now considering forcing drivers to pay a congestion charge to curb pollution, a measure that only London has enacted and that New York is debating.
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“They ban coal, and we follow, they say firewood is not for fetching, they say we need to plant more trees,” Bola Tinubu, a leading candidate in this month’s Nigerian presidential elections, said in October. “If you don’t guarantee our finances and work with us to stop this, we are not going to comply with your climate change.”
The Just Energy Transition Partnerships are an effort to respond. The first was signed in 2021 between South Africa and the US, the UK, the European Union, Germany and France. The $8.5 billion financing package was designed to help South Africa transition away from coal and provide a blueprint for new agreements between developed countries and middle-income nations that depend on dirtier fossil fuels.
The details of the deal weren’t agreed until a few months ago though, with South Africa and its partners disagreeing about how the money should be spent. In the meantime, South Africans have faced daily power rationing as the loss-making state utility Eskom struggles to manage its ageing coal-fired plants.
The African Hydrogen Partnership, a grouping of private sector organizations, is pushing to develop green hydrogen as an alternative fro everything from public transport to clean cooking fuel.
“Our focus is on the domestic market,” said its co-founder and vice-chairman Siegfried Huegemann. “It’s where we see great potential, fantastic potential for developing new industries.”
When pipelines and harbors are built, however, Africa could become a major source of green hydrogen for markets elsewhere. The continent has the potential to produce €1 trillion ($1.1 trillion) worth of green hydrogen annually by 2035, according to a study by the European Investment Bank. As with electricity generation, however, transformational changes of that magnitude need money.
“We know that the climate challenge will be significantly difficult to manage and to adapt to — and in Africa the opportunity is dependent upon building resilience and economic resilience above all,” Mathai said. “You can see what a vicious circle this is.”
Morocco has once again emerged as a leader in the Maghreb in matters of climate finance systems and regulation to support climate action, according to the “Climate Finance Readiness Index” report
The report, published recently by the Toronto and Casablanca-based consulting firm Green For South, highlighted that Morocco is, in its sub-region which also includes Algeria and Tunisia, the first to have adopted “appropriate regulations and guidelines (mostly voluntary at this stage), an interesting volume of climate finance activity (dealing with international funds and issuing green bonds) and effective awareness raising schemes.”
The report also highlighted Morocco’s efforts to improve its climate resilience, particularly in terms of mitigation, which requires significant investment, recalling in this regard the total cost of climate mitigation and adaptation actions included in the NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) as published in June 2022. The amount is estimated at $78 billion, divided between mitigation measures ($38) and warning measures ($40 billion).
Tunisia also has appropriate regulation (on a voluntary basis), an interesting volume of climate finance activity, the report said, noting, however, that there has been no issuance of green bonds or “Sukuk” and awareness provisions are still limited.
As for Algeria, the report noted that the country “has no regulation in the financial sector to support climate action and that climate finance activity is still limited,” estimating that overall, the North African region is at an early stage of implementation of these actions.
For this firm specializing in sustainable finance, green and climate, Morocco and Tunisia are called to further strengthen their regulations and make them mandatory, and encourage green emissions and launch more awareness initiatives and training.
In the Middle East, Egypt is leading the way in making all ESG and climate risk regulations mandatory in the different financial sectors, namely banking, insurance, and capital markets, unlike countries like Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey that generally have voluntary reporting requirements.
The consulting Green for South firm, specializing in sustainable, green and climate finance, has evaluated in its Climate Finance Readiness Index report the regulations and measures taken by 14 countries in terms of climate finance. The assessment, covering 4 regions – North Africa, Middle East, Gulf and Turkey – takes into account the specificities of each territory and sets up appropriate criteria. With a score of 31.33%, the North African region shows promising results, with Morocco representing the most successful model.
FSD Africa, in partnership with UMOA-Titres (UT), commissioned Genesis Analytics, a consulting partner, to develop a study that determines the feasibility of deploying a financial instrument to address climate change, environmental and/or waste management challenges in the city of Saint-Louis, Senegal.
Both the physical and socio-economic characteristics of the city make it vulnerable to climate change. Numerous government and donor-led resilience interventions have been implemented in Saint-Louis. However, there has been little participation by the private sector at scale.
The UK government through the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has provided support to FSD Africa for the study. The new study will be launched at the 2023 West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) Government Securities Markets Meetings in Dakar, Senegal. It highlights the opportunities to tackle flooding, coastal erosion, heavy rains, land and ecosystem degradation, fishery decline, and poor waste management, to improve living conditions for the communities living in Saint-Louis.
With an estimated population of 1.1 million people living in Saint-Louis, approximately 80,000 of these live in densely populated fishing neighborhoods, high-risk zones which are constantly under attack from flooding and coastal erosion. Between 2019 and 2020 more than 2,000 people, mostly inhabitants of the fishing district of Guet N’dar, north of Saint-Louis, lost their homes due to the rising sea levels. The World Bank estimates that 10,000-15,000 people in the city are either already displaced or live within 20 meters of these high-risk zones. Furthermore, climate change continues to cause rising sea levels, heavier rainfall and higher temperatures in the city, further impacting the livelihoods of local people.
Saint-Louis is the former capital of Senegal and a UNESCO World Heritage site since the year 2000. The city benefits from programs such as the Safeguard and Enhancement Plan (PSMV), the main legal instrument for the protection of the site adopted in 2008 by the government of Senegal. However, it still faces the effects of climate change with the sea levels on the West African coast rising between 3.5 and 4 millimeters annually, which poses an existential threat. The city has an opportunity to capture a greater portion of the international climate finance flows available globally, through the deployment of Impact Bonds.
Impact bonds, the recommended financial instrument for challenges facing Saint-Louis, comprise Social Impact Bonds (SIBs), Development Impact Bonds (DIBs), or Environmental Impact Bonds (EIBs). Across Africa a high concentration of economic activity and investment in the capital cities has limited the funds available to other regions in need of funding for climate change resilience and adaptation programmes. To deal with these challenges, the study unveils solutions such as the involvement of the private sector through impact bonds to widen the capital pool for various projects.
Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) estimates that the continent requires USD 277 billion annually to implement its NDCs and meet 2030 climate goals[1]. But annual climate finance flows in Africa stand at only USD 30 billion. This gap is likely even wider as countries often underestimate their financial needs, especially in relation to adaptation, due to data and methodological problems in costing their NDCs (UNFCCC, 2021). Time is of the essence; delaying action will cost the continent more in the future.
Evans Osano, Director, Capital Markets at FSD Africa emphasised that climate action requires significant financial investments, “Africa requires USD 2.8 trillion between 2020-2030 to implement its Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. This is the cost of the continent’s contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C and addressing the biggest impacts of climate change. However, annual climate finance flows in Africa stand at only USD 30 billion with private sector contribution at only 14%. This study is critical in identifying opportunities to attract climate finance flows in addressing climate challenges”.
Continent needs $2.8trn 2020-2030 to implement NDCs under Paris agreement
A new study by FSD Africa in partnership with UMOA-Titre (UT) in which Genesis Analytics was commissioned, has found that deploying Development Impact and Social Impact bonds can significantly unlock climate finance flows to address climate change challenges in Africa.
The study carried out in Saint Louis, Senegal’s port city, aimed at developing a study that determines the likelihood of deploying a financial instrument to address climate change, environmental and/or waste management challenges in Saint-Louis, a coastal town with an estimated 1.1 million people.
The impact bonds recommended as financial instruments for challenges facing Saint-Louis include, Social Impact Bonds (SIBs), Development Impact Bonds (DIBs), or Environmental Impact Bonds (EIBs).
Impact bonds such as social impact bonds (SIBs), also known as social bonds or social benefit goods, are a type of financial security that offers capital to the public sector to fund projects that will create better social outcomes, and lead to savings. The Centre for Global Development (CGD) says these bonds are a new development in finance.
According to Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) estimates, Africa requires $277 billion annually to implement its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and meet the 2030 climate goals. Published with the title: “Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa,” CPI indicates that, so far, Africa’s annual climate finance flows stand at only $30 billion.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021 said this gap is likely to get even wider as countries often underestimate their financial needs, especially in relation to adaptation, due to data and methodological problems in costing their NDCs. It warned that time is of the essence; delaying action will cost the continent more in the future.
The FSD Africa – UMOA-Titre study found that both the physical and socio-economic characteristics in Saint Louis make it vulnerable to climate change. Numerous government and donor-led resilience interventions have been implemented in the area. However, there has been little participation by the private sector at scale. Also, approximately 80,000 of people of the coastal city live in densely populated fishing neighbourhoods, high-risk zones which are constantly under attack from flooding and coastal erosion. Between 2019 and 2020 more than 2,000 people, mostly inhabitants of Saint-Louis’ northern fishing district of Guet N’dar lost their homes due to the rising sea levels. The World Bank estimated that 10,000-15,000 people in the city are either already displaced or live within 20 metres of these high-risk zones. Also, climate change continues to cause rising sea levels, heavier rainfall and higher temperatures in the city, thereby impacting the livelihoods of the local people.
Saint-Louis is the former capital of Senegal and a UNESCO World Heritage site since the year 2000. The city benefits from programmes such as the Safeguard and Enhancement Plan (PSMV), a key legal instrument for the protection of the site adopted in 2008 by the government of Senegal. However, it still faces the effects of climate change with the sea levels on the West African coast rising between 3.5 and 4.0 millimetres annually, which poses an existential threat.
With the new study, the city has a big chance to capture a greater portion of the international climate finance flows available globally, through the deployment of impact bonds.
Reproducing Saint Louis across Africa
It follows that African national governments can successfully reproduce the Saint Louis research success across the continent. The study is due for launch during the forthcoming West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) Government Securities Markets meetings in Dakar, Senegal.
There is a continental refrain of limited finance to fund climate change resilience and adaptation programmes. It was to deal with these challenges that the Saint Louis study appears to have unveiled solutions such as involving the private sector through impact bonds to widen the capital pool for various projects.
Evans Osano, the director of capital markets at FSD Africa, emphasised that climate action requires significant financial investments.
“Africa requires USD 2.8 trillion between 2020-2030 to implement its Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. This is the cost of the continent’s contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C and addressing the biggest impacts of climate change. However, annual climate finance flows in Africa stand at only USD 30 billion with private sector contribution at only 14%. This study is critical in identifying opportunities to attract climate finance flows in addressing climate challenges,” Osano said.
The new study highlights the opportunities to tackle flooding, coastal erosion, heavy rains, land and ecosystem degradation, fishery decline, and poor waste management, to improve living conditions for the communities living in Saint-Louis. Funding for the study was provided by the UK government through the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).
Nigeria’s Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, said Africa’s share of the global carbon market can be scaled up massively to reach foreign direct investment (FDI) of between $120 to $200 billion annually.
The Vice President stated this during his keynote speech at the Rockefeller Foundation meeting in New York.
He identified a combination of capital flows, job creation, and the avoidance of long-term climate destruction as critical drivers of African leaders’ interest in supporting this effort.
According to him, Africa currently has only a small share of the carbon market. He explained the importance of this projected carbon finance stream, saying:
“For a continent that needs $240 billion annually in mitigation investment alone, this carbon finance stream could be the difference between transitioning and not (transitioning). As all of us in this room understand well, the priorities of the African continent are not just to act decisively on the climate crisis, but to also create significant growth opportunities for our young and growing population.”
“The investment required to advance the energy transition in Africa is huge. World Bank estimates suggest that Africa needs $6.5 trillion US dollars between now and 2050 for mitigation action alone to keep temperatures below 2 degrees of warming.”
VP Osinbajo also highlighted that the carbon market pipeline could create 30 million jobs in the next decade, with the potential to create more than 100 million jobs through climate-aligned projects by 2050.
Africa’s carbon markets: During his speech, VP Osinbajo noted that the rapid progress recorded in Africa benefitted from the support of a very engaged Steering Committee with the United Nations, Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP), USAID, and a range of other public and private actors, which resulted in the successful launch of the African Carbon Markets initiative (ACMI) in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt during the COP-27 event.
“The strong commitment and presence from fellow African leaders demonstrate the willingness and leadership of Africa. We already have 7 African countries (Burundi, Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Togo) signed up to develop country carbon activation plans and over $200 million in advanced market commitments, which we must continue to further advance as this is going to be the critical driver of action on the continent.”
“I think it’s an auspicious moment for Africa to be participating more fully in the global carbon market conversation, especially in the light of the slowing pace of green investment flows into the continent. The work several of us have done together in the past few months makes it clear that while other sources of flows are slowing down globally, carbon markets are growing rapidly,” Osinbajo said.
Advancing carbon markets: VP Osinbajo also spoke about the essence of collaborations in developing carbon markets on the continent. He said collaboration is a key to unlocking opportunities in Africa’s carbon markets. He said:
“One of the strong points of ACMI and the way we must structure it going forward, in terms of governance, is the flexibility to smoothly work with other initiatives, and there will be many others. Two days before the opening of Cop 27, Senator John Kerry and I had a conversation about the proposed Energy Transition Accelerator and we both agreed that once the details were worked out, we would work out a collaborative framework with ACMI.
“Carbon markets will play a critical role in the implementation of this (Energy Transition) Plan – in mobilizing the capital required to move to our net-zero economy-wide trajectory. I want Nigeria to have the first Carbon Markets Activation Plan.”
In his contribution, the US Presidential Envoy on Climate Change, Senator John Kerry, commended VP Osinbajo for his leadership on the issue of energy transition. Kerry said:
“We are grateful for the leadership of the VP, grateful for the reception you gave me on my visit to Nigeria. I am honoured to share the platform with you on how to move the African Carbon Market Initiative (ACMI) forward.
“It is possible to create a high-integrity carbon market in a way to address Climate Change and African Development aspirations. We are all joined together looking forward to developing the financing.”
In case you missed it: The ACMI is a new initiative that was launched during the conference of parties (COP 27) event held in Egypt. The ACMI will be led by a fourteen-member steering committee of African leaders, CEOs, and carbon credit experts. The ACMI aims to dramatically expand Africa’s participation in voluntary carbon markets.
COP27 may be over but its impact will be felt for many decades to come.
Discussions highlighted nature’s pivotal role in tackling the climate crisis.
Here we reflect on 10 areas where progress is being made on climate action.
The implications of COP27 will likely be felt for decades to come, for better or worse. While a broad range of analysis has already been published on the ultimate outcomes of COP27, this summary includes reflections on how nature was the stand out topic at COP27 – here are the top ten takeaways.
1. Calls for structural reform of finance for nature and climate
It was impossible to pass a day at COP27 without having a conversation about finance – but finance means different things to different people. The breakthrough on loss and damage funding made the headlines, but this year there was much attention on structural reform of the financial system as well as the need to create innovative mechanisms that support nature and climate outcomes at national and ecosystem levels.
The Bridgetown agenda remained a central theme within these discussions. Before COP27, there was much focus on the need for financing adaptation measures – although in fact, very little progressed on this agenda from Glasgow. The multilateral development banks are also under scrutiny – sovereign bonds and sustainability-linked loans and bonds have been high on the agenda. Leading financial institutions from Japan to Norway to Brazil, all signatories to the Financial Sector Commitment on Eliminating Commodity-driven Deforestation have been moving forward with implementation through the Finance Sector Deforestation Action (FSDA) initiative.
FSDA members have published shared investor expectations for companies, and they are stepping up engagement activity and are working with policymakers and data providers. More broadly, the 10 point plan for financing biodiversity moved ahead at COP27 with a ministerial meeting between 16 countries representing five continents to set a pathway for bridging the global biodiversity finance gap – and looking ahead to the biodiversity COP15 in December 2020.
2. Biodiversity COP15 looms large
The biodiversity COP is usually a distant cousin to the climate COP, but in Egypt there was a considerable amount of attention on the need to create a “sister agreement” – a Paris moment for nature. The messaging that the climate and nature crises are deeply linked was made loud and clear at COP27.
On Biodiversity Day, the Paris climate champions urged leaders to step up action to address the accelerating loss of nature by delivering an ambitious biodiversity agreement at COP15 in Montreal. On the same day, more than 340 civil society leaders called on governments to prioritise the biodiversity COP, and a new survey from more than 400 experts from 90 countries revealed that a shocking 88% believe that the state of the world’s nature is “alarming” or “catastrophic and potentially irreversible”.
However, even though many countries were pushing for COP15 to be included in the COP27 text, the attempt failed – a disappointing outcome as net-zero emissions will not be enough to limit rapidly rising temperatures. Governments also need to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030.
3. Strong signs of political will for forests
The creation of the Forest and Climate Leaders’ Partnership (FCLP), announced at the World Leaders’ Summit, is being driven by the reality that there is no time to lose when it comes to halt and reverse forest loss by 2030, with the intent to demonstrate success by COP28. The leaders of the 28 – and counting – FCLP member countries serve as key actors in the partnership, and its ultimate priority setters.
The FCLP will hold regular meetings, including leader-level moments at the beginning of climate COPs to encourage accountability. Starting in 2023, the FCLP will also publish an annual Global Progress Report that includes independent assessments of global progress toward the 2030 goal, as well as summarising progress made by the FCLP itself, including in its action areas and initiatives.
The presence of Brazil’s president elect, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, put a spotlight on the Amazon at COP27 – with Brazil promising to prioritise stopping deforestation and offering to host COP30 in three years’ time. Also, an announcement by Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo – made in Indonesia ahead of the G20 – signalled their intentions to work together to protect their vast swathes of tropical forests, earning the nickname “the OPEC of rainforests”.
This chart shows the total hectares of forest that have been destroyed in different countries. Source: Statista.
4. Implementation of forest pledges
Coming into COP27, there were clear signs that the global community is not yet on track to halt and reverse forest loss and degradation by 2030. Another UN-led report found that for 2030 goals to remain within reach, a one gigaton milestone of emissions reductions from forests must be achieved not later than 2025, and yearly after that, but that current public and private commitments to pay for emissions reductions are only at 24% of the gigaton milestone goal.
However, it wasn’t all bad news on the implementation front. Nature4Climate’s new joint commitment tracker found that 55% of the commitments tracked are demonstrating substantial signs of progress. There are also some bright spots to celebrate. For example, tropical Asia is on the path toward reversing forest loss by 2030: Indonesia’s deforestation rate dropped by 25% last year, and Malaysia also reported a fall of 24% in the pace of forest loss last year.
Forest pledges made in Glasgow at COP26 were also in the spotlight. In 2021, $2.67 billion was put towards forest-related programmes in developing countries – 22% of the $12 billion pledged at COP26, meaning that donors are on track to deliver by 2025. Private sector funds are also moving: for example, one year after launch, the IFACC initiative is scaling innovative financial mechanisms to help farmers without further conversion of the Amazon, Cerrado and Chaco ecosystems.
So far, commitments have risen from $3 billion to $4.2 billion and disbursements are expected to exceed $100 million this year. Similarly, the public-private LEAF Coalition has mobilised an additional $500 million in private finance, bringing a total of $1.5 billion in support of tropical forest protection. This is part of $3.6 billion of new private finance announced at the climate summit.
And exciting private sector initiatives worth noting include the launch of a new company Biomas (by Suzano, Santander, Itau, Marfrig, Rabobank and Vale) to restore 4 million hectares in the Amazon, the Mata Atlantica rainforest and the Cerrado. Also, 1t.org announced pledges from its first four Indian companies (Vedanta, ReNew Power, CSC Group and Mahindra) to join 75 other companies worldwide committed to planting and growing 7 billion trees in more than 60 countries.
5. Nature of negotiations
In the negotiations, nature-based solutions were included in the COP27 text for the first time, with forests, oceans and agriculture each having their own section. The Koronivia Dialogue – the track where food and agriculture is discussed at the UNFCCC – has finally been included in the text, but all eyes turn to COP28 for the focus required to truly transform food systems.
In the wonderful world of Article 6, things remain complex. Last year, at COP26 in Glasgow, countries decided on the basic framework of Article 6. Throughout 2022, countries have been focused on how to operationalise the Article 6 mechanism that allows countries to actually begin trading. In Egypt, the discussions were very technical – such as how registries are going to work, how countries will report on the trading, and what information should be submitted –with the aim of making things easy to track.
For nature, it was decided at COP26 that land use emissions were part of Article 6 – as it includes all sources and sinks. The focus in Egypt has been on article 6.4 – the mechanism for developing guidance on activities involving removals which includes reforestation, restoration, afforestation etc.
6. Technology meets nature
In a similar way to finance, “tech” gets everywhere at climate COPs, although historically that is not really the case when it comes to nature – not this year however. In Egypt, the need for high-tech solutions for nature and climate challenges was a constant refrain. The role of tech in improving transparency and accountability in monitoring supply chains (and tackling deforestation) and also in enhancing the integrity of carbon markets was evident everywhere.
Notable developments include Verra’s partnership with Pachama to pilot a digital measuring, reporting and verification platform for forest carbon. A new Forest Data Partnership was announced by WRI, FAO, USAID, Google, NASA, Unilever and the US State Department. WRI’s Land and Carbon Lab was on show demonstrating the new frontier of measuring carbon stocks and flows associated with land use.
Nature4Climate demonstrated a beta version of its new online platform (naturebase) to help decision makers implement natural climate solutions. And the new Global Renewable Energy Watch – a partnership between The Nature Conservancy, Microsoft and Planet – was also demonstrated. Capturing this emerging trend, Nature4Climate and Capital for Climate launched a report on the size and potential of the whole “nature tech” market that was discussed at an event in the Nature Zone.
7. Food finally arrives on the scene
Food was on everyone’s mind at COP27 in Egypt – but for the first time, it also made it onto the main agenda – being recognised in the final text and also with at least five event spaces solely dedicated to food and agriculture.
Important developments included the Food and Agriculture for Sustainable Transformation Initiative (FAST) launched by the Egyptian COP presidency – a multi stakeholder partnership to accelerate access to finance, build capacity and encourage policy development to ensure food security in countries most vulnerable to climate change.
Also related to food, 14 of the world’s largest agricultural trading and processing companies shared their roadmap to 1.5℃ – to mixed reactions – with detailed plans on outlining how they will remove deforestation from their agricultural commodity supply chains by 2025.
8. An increasingly blue COP
Observers have expressed encouragement at this being “an increasingly blue COP”, with the ocean called out in the final declaration and the first ever ocean pavilion in the blue zone. Several declarations reinforced the recognition of the fundamental role of the ocean in the climate system.
The critical role that Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) play as guardians of the forest is now firmly established and beyond question. At COP27, there was a polite but palpable frustration from IPLCs that climate funds are not reaching them. This massive deficit is increasingly being acknowledged by both by Indigenous and non-Indigenous actors, with a wide range of events dedicated to this topic.
While COP27 was a good space for Indigenous and non-Indigenous actors to share knowledge, to listen deeply to one another, to build relationships, it clearly can’t be the only space. While there are a number of encouraging signs of progress, including linking IPLCs with high-integrity markets, it’s clear the clock is ticking and IPLCs are getting impatient.
Clearly we must act with urgency, but it’s critical to take the time to build trust and mutual understanding, including absolute adherence to free, prior and informed consent protocols. This is necessary so that IPLCs can decide (or not) to participate in carbon markets with transparency, full understanding, and free consent. This takes time.
10. African-led initiatives take centre stage
While this was not the “African COP” that many hoped it might be, there were still a range of significant announcements coming out of Egypt that highlighted the continent’s potential as a natural capital powerhouse. These included the launch of the Africa Carbon Markets initiative, the Declaration for the Africa Sustainable Commodities Initiative, the launch of a $2 billion African restoration fund, a funding boost for Africa’s visionary Great Green Wall initiatives, and the announcement by the Global EverGreening Alliance and Climate Impact Partners of a new partnership to up to $330 million in community-led removal programs across Africa and Asia.
